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Sunday, October 27, 2013

Nuff Said

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Outlook on Debt Ceiling and US Government Shutdown

**Analysis was made on 07-Oct-13.**

Our outlook remains constructive on equities until the end of the year despite Government Shutdown and and Debt Ceiling concerns that is due to be fixed before 17-Oct-13.

This is due to the following reasons.

1. Technicals. SPX is bullish technically and is forming a falling broadening wedge pattern in the 1Y daily chart w/c suggests a continuation of the upside move in the short-term. This bullish outlook will be invalidated if the price breaks the Support of the rising wedge w/c will then turn the technicals bearish. A potential driver of this event happening is when the policy makers in the US don't come up with a deal before 17-Oct-13 to raise it's debt ceiling. However we'd take the opposite bet on this because given that they "own" the decision whether they will default or not and given that the whole world is looking at them the probability that they will decide not to default is higher.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Sell in May and Go Away, Go back in Late September to October

Some thoughts on Index Seasonality (Dow Jones)

Key takeaways:

- The Dow is back where it was 6 Months ago (around April 10 to Present)

- In a 1 Year perspective, it seems Index Seasonality is in play

Dow Jones YTD Chart

 Dow Jones 15Y Seasonal Average

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

JGS buys MER shares from San Miguel Group at P237 per Share

Based on the disclosure from JGS below, we crunched the numbers to compute how much RSA and JG was pricing their deal and we came up with P236.6/share - That's about 20% discount from yesterday's closing price. If the numbers are correct, this is a pretty good deal for the Gokongweis if you ask me.