The Year that was and the Year that will be

It's been a while since we've last updated this blog so yeah, here's some updates on what's going on. Haha!

2013 was a volatile year for Philippines and the EM in general. The PCOMP started out 2013 quite strongly in the 1st 5 months of the year only to wipe out all the gains accumulated in just roughly a month time from mid-May to end of July. 

2013 was a roller coaster ride w/c ended up relatively flat at 1.33% gain, on the other hand, for 2014 the PCOMP is coming back with a 6.87% YTD gain. Let's see what happens moving forward.

*Click Image to Enlarge*

PCOMP, Daily, 2013 to Present

Apparently the performance of our stock portfolio for 2013 to present is somewhat crappy, we've only made 0.83% for the whole 2013 and is currently at -1.89% for the year 2014. This vs the PCOMP's 1.33% (2013) and 6.87% (YTD 2014) and S&P 500's 31.30% (2013) and -0.69% (2014).

Outlook on Debt Ceiling and US Government Shutdown

**Analysis was made on 07-Oct-13.**

Our outlook remains constructive on equities until the end of the year despite Government Shutdown and and Debt Ceiling concerns that is due to be fixed before 17-Oct-13.

This is due to the following reasons.

1. Technicals. SPX is bullish technically and is forming a falling broadening wedge pattern in the 1Y daily chart w/c suggests a continuation of the upside move in the short-term. This bullish outlook will be invalidated if the price breaks the Support of the rising wedge w/c will then turn the technicals bearish. A potential driver of this event happening is when the policy makers in the US don't come up with a deal before 17-Oct-13 to raise it's debt ceiling. However we'd take the opposite bet on this because given that they "own" the decision whether they will default or not and given that the whole world is looking at them the probability that they will decide not to default is higher.

Sell in May and Go Away, Go back in Late September to October

Some thoughts on Index Seasonality (Dow Jones)

Key takeaways:

- The Dow is back where it was 6 Months ago (around April 10 to Present)

- In a 1 Year perspective, it seems Index Seasonality is in play

Dow Jones YTD Chart

 Dow Jones 15Y Seasonal Average