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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Investment Thesis: Took profit on ACR and Re-positioned to ABS and LPZ

I wanted to position myself on $ABS (ABS-CBN Corp) & $LPZ (Lopez Holdings Corp) as a play for the upcoming 2016 presidential and general elections with the extra power shortage play and Bayantel deal catalyst with Globe for $LPZ. The problem is I don't have enough cash sitting around in my COL portfolio and I am not trading with margin so I have to sell some of my open positions.

W/c raises the question, what position in my current portfolio is worth replacing with $ABS and $LPZ?

Giving a quick look at my portfolio my biggest running gain so far is with $ACR (Alsons Consolidated Resources Inc) of around 63% up from my average buying price at 1.2888. This looks like a good contender to sell given that 

1. I've already made decent money on the stock
2. Due to the recent rise, the stock is now trading at 40x PE (hence relatively expensive)
3. Technically, ACR appears to be "spiker" in nature, since I've captured the a huge spike at short time-frame it may be prudent to take some money off the table

The risk here is that due to the strong momentum, $ACR could continue going up, but given the 3 points mentioned above and $ABS and $LPZ are very compelling at current prices due to cheap valuations and having strong fundamentals plus the upcoming catalysts. It is my view that selling $ACR and buying $ABS and $LPZ makes sense.

On top of this, company insiders are also buyers at current levels for $LPZ and $ABS.

Having the above said, I sold my $ACR shares @ 2.1 and realized  a gain of 63% today and used the proceeds plus some dividends accumulated on my other positions to buy $ABS at 37.15 and $LPZ at 5.05.

Valuation Matrix:

**Click to enlarge the charts**

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Who's Buying US Treasury Bonds & Notes After FED's QE Tapering?

Interestingly the US Treasury 10Yr Notes are actually going up after the actual QE tapering. W/c raises us the question, so if the FED is "Tapering" or slowing down it's asset purchases hence lesser demand or lesser buying in the system, who's bringing the prices higher?

Checking the charts... and the culprit is....

2Y Daily - US 10Yr Note Future

Saturday, July 19, 2014

The Three (3) Phases of Investing According to Mr. Edward Lee

When Mr. Edward Lee, the Founder and Chairman of the Board of COL Financial Group Inc speaks I always listen. I have very high regards for the man because he is a self-made billionaire from humble beginnings coming from a family of elementary school teachers.

I guess we could say that Mr. Lee is one of the guys who's gotten very rich by investing in the Philippine stock market even by starting out small without any background and knowledge in the industry (*coughs* I can relate except for he "very rich" part - yet hehe!"). So for the Filipino Investors out there who is investing in stocks, specially to those guys who are just starting to invest in stocks, I believe learning from the the guy who's actually made it would yield valuable leanings and insights.

He discusses about the 3 phases or  key questions every investor should know when it comes to investing:

1. Does it work?
2. How does it work?
3. Why can't I make it work?

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Rules and Guidelines Against Stock Price Manipulation a.k.a "Market Manipulation"

Below are the rules & guidelines of the Capital Markets Integrity Corporation (CMIC) against stock price manipulation.

We would like to remind The Filipino Investors out there to trade in accordance with the rules of proper trading and to not be a victim of these illegal trading practices - specially that stock price manipulation is easier to pull off on smaller markets with smaller companies such as the Philippines, that is not to say that this removes the merits of long-term investing in the stock market.

As an investor and trader in the Philippine stock market for about 4+ years now. It is good to know that these rules are properly in place.

Here are some of the listed violations as presented in Article XI-B, Section 9 of the CMIC Rules.

Section 9. Manipulative Schemes.

Set forth below are non-exclusive examples of types of prohibited

(a) Engaging in a series of transactions in securities that are reported publicly to give the
impression of activity or price movement in a security (e.g. painting the tape);

(b) Posting actual or fictitious bid or offer at or near the close of the market, whether
matched/executed or not, in an effort to alter or is likely to have the effect of altering
the closing price of the security (marking the close);

(c) Engaging in transactions where both the buy and sell orders are entered at substantially
the same time with the same price and quantity by different but colluding parties
(improper matched orders);

(d) Engaging in buying activity at increasingly higher prices and then selling securities in the
market at the higher prices (hype and dump);

(e) Engaging in transactions in which there is no genuine change in actual ownership of a
security (wash sales);

(f) Taking advantage of a shortage of securities in the market by controlling the demand
side and exploiting market congestion during such shortages in a way as to create
artificial prices (squeezing the float);

(g) Disseminating false or misleading market information through media, including the
internet, or any other means to move the price of a security in a direction that is
favorable to a position held or a transaction.

Friday, July 4, 2014

Dividend Ex-Dates in the Philippines in the Next Three (3) Months as of 03-July-2014

Sup Filipino Investors!

For the dividend followers out there, as promised here's an update on the companies that are paying dividends in the next three (3) months in the Philippines as of 03-July-2014.

"Dividend Ex-Date" is the actual ex-date already announced by the company.

"Next Estimated Ex-Dividend Date" as the name implies, is the estimated next dividend ex-date of the company based on their historical trend of dividend releases.

If you want additional items to be added on this table hit the comment button below and we'll try to get them included next month. As requested we've also arranged the data according the the most recent dividend ex-date. :)


TickerShort NameMarket Cap (PhP)Last Price (PhP)Dividend Ex-DateNext Estimated Ex-Dividend DateDividend Yield
GLO PM EquityGLOBE TELECOM223,434,000,00016842/21/20148/15/20144.45
MWC PM EquityMANILA WATER52,704,989,18426.153/3/201410/6/20143.08
ALI PM EquityAYALA LAND INC432,670,000,00030.53/4/20149/12/20141.36
TEL PM EquityPHILIPP LONG DIS648,167,000,00030003/13/20148/26/20144.13
MPI PM EquityMETRO PACIFIC IN129,684,000,0004.984/3/20148/21/20140.88
MER PM EquityMANILA ELECTRIC286,283,000,0002544/10/20148/19/20142.72
MFC PM EquityMANULIFE FIN1,409,800,000,000760.55/8/20148/15/20142.79
SLF PM EquitySUN LIFE FINANCI868,398,000,00014225/23/20148/25/20144.07
SMC PM EquitySAN MIGUEL195,118,000,00082.056/24/201410/14/20141.69
VVT PM EquityVIVANT CORP10,255,036,41610.027/4/20141.71
AC PM EquityAYALA CORP398,633,000,0006647/7/201412/15/20140.72
MACAY PM EquityMACAY HOLDINGS I41,453,658,11238.87/8/20143.42
COSCO PM EquityCOSCO CAPITAL IN71,757,004,8009.697/8/20140.62
BPI PM EquityBANK PHILIPPINE373,460,000,00095.057/9/201412/25/20141.89
CEB PM EquityCEBU AIR INC35,024,101,37657.87/11/20147/10/20151.73
RRHI PM EquityROBINSONS RETAIL98,354,020,352727/14/20140.57
JGS PM EquityJG SUMMIT HLDG364,894,000,000527/14/20147/13/20150.38
FJP PM EquityFJ PRINCE HLDG-A1,445,482,88037/16/20143.33
EEI PM EquityEEI CORP11,399,096,320118/27/20144/6/20151.82
BDO PM EquityBDO UNIBANK INC332,842,000,00092.959/8/20143/9/20151.29
LR PM EquityLEISURE & RESORT8,170,995,7126.819/24/20141.17

Source: Bloomberg

This is not an investment advice and the author shall not be responsible or liable for any trading or investment decisions made based on this information.
The author hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility for any error or inaccuracy in the information.