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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Investment Thesis: Took profit on ACR and Re-positioned to ABS and LPZ

I wanted to position myself on $ABS (ABS-CBN Corp) & $LPZ (Lopez Holdings Corp) as a play for the upcoming 2016 presidential and general elections with the extra power shortage play and Bayantel deal catalyst with Globe for $LPZ. The problem is I don't have enough cash sitting around in my COL portfolio and I am not trading with margin so I have to sell some of my open positions.

W/c raises the question, what position in my current portfolio is worth replacing with $ABS and $LPZ?

Giving a quick look at my portfolio my biggest running gain so far is with $ACR (Alsons Consolidated Resources Inc) of around 63% up from my average buying price at 1.2888. This looks like a good contender to sell given that 

1. I've already made decent money on the stock
2. Due to the recent rise, the stock is now trading at 40x PE (hence relatively expensive)
3. Technically, ACR appears to be "spiker" in nature, since I've captured the a huge spike at short time-frame it may be prudent to take some money off the table

The risk here is that due to the strong momentum, $ACR could continue going up, but given the 3 points mentioned above and $ABS and $LPZ are very compelling at current prices due to cheap valuations and having strong fundamentals plus the upcoming catalysts. It is my view that selling $ACR and buying $ABS and $LPZ makes sense.

On top of this, company insiders are also buyers at current levels for $LPZ and $ABS.

Having the above said, I sold my $ACR shares @ 2.1 and realized  a gain of 63% today and used the proceeds plus some dividends accumulated on my other positions to buy $ABS at 37.15 and $LPZ at 5.05.

Valuation Matrix:

**Click to enlarge the charts**
ACR 10Y Weekly

ABS 10Y Weekly

LPZ 5Y Weekly

 ABS Insider Buying/Selling

LPZ Insider Buying/Selling

The "Juice"

In essence, I am buying companies that are roughly 50% cheaper than the market, that are in a fundamentally strong and sound businesses (ABS is a market leader in Philippine media and LPZ owns ABS as well as other energy generation companies in the Philippines (ex. EDC, FGEN) and the Philippines is a country that is currently in an energy crisis) w/c are seasonally positioned to take advantage of the upcoming Philippine Presidential and General elections this 2016 (less than two years away) where the company owners/management are buyers at current levels.

TFIEF Allocation Now:

This is not an investment advice and the author shall not be responsible or liable for any trading or investment decisions made based on this information.
The author hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility for any error or inaccuracy in the information.


  1. Excellent post sir. May I know the source of the TFIEF? Thanks.

    1. Thank you Sir,

      The Filipino Investor Equity Fund (TFIEF) is our fancy name for the personal portfolio managed by the admin of this site.

      Kenny | The Filipino Investor

    2. Galing, Kenny. I'm amused by your equity fund name, ha :-)


    3. Haha! Thanks for the kind words Dr. E ;-)