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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Top 50 Richest Filipinos According to Forbes (2013)

The numbers are out for the Top 50 richest Filipinos for 2013!

Forbes magazine has just released its list of top 50 richest people in the Philippines.

Mall tycoon Henry Sy is still undisputed for the 6th straight year, with a $12 billion net worth - an increase of $2.9 billion from a year ago.

I'd like to point out that the numbers is in US Dollars! To put this in perspective $12 Billion is roughly PHP 516 Billion.. Damn! Let's stop and reflect for while. LOL!

So what do you think these guys have in common? =)

Here's the Forbes list of the richest people with their estimated net worth:

1) Henry Sy; US$12 billion
2) Lucio Tan; $7.5 billion
3) Andrew Tan; $4.6 billion
4) Enrique Razon Jr.; $4.5 billion
5) John Gokongwei Jr.; $3.4 billion

Thursday, July 25, 2013

COL Mid-Year Market Briefing - The Tides of Opportunity

Got this invitation from COL. If you're a client and you're free on the said dates, make sure you don't miss this event. =)

Registration is strictly on a first-come, first-served basis and will automatically close once maximum capacity has been reached. Reserve your seat today. Please do not forget to print out your e-ticket as this will be presented at the registration table on the day of the event.

See you there!

Philippine Composite Index (PCOMP:IND) - Where Are We In Terms of Valuations?

PSEi seems to be struggling to breach 6800.

We think there is a good reason for that simply because we cannot hide the cold fact that at current prices, our market is in the higher end (expensive) of the "value" range as measured by Current and Forward PE, Price to Book, and Dividend Yield.

Picture paints a thousand words. See for yourself.

Price = White
Current PE = Red
Forward PE = Orange
Price To Book = Blue
Div Yield = Yellow

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Slowing China: A Monster Under The Bed Story?

Some thoughts on Disappointing China PMI.

If this data really suggests that the worst is yet to come in China then why did the CSI 300 stayed afloat it's Nov/Dec low? And why did  the price today not able to close below yesterdays open? If the markets think that China is going to get "Slower" or even "More Slower" (pun intended) in the future confirmed by the PMI data then a drastic sell-off should have occurred and a Lower Low should have been formed, but this doesn't seem to happen in the price. We think the price action is a confirmation that the Chinese slowdown that the market is thinking (as shown in Financial Media) is already reflected in the price, if not over-reflected.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

What Happens to Equities and Bond Prices When There is a Sudden "Spike" in Interest Rates?

**This analysis was done last May 03, 2013 - Before Ben Bernanke's "Tapering".**

This is in relation to Lloyd Blankfein's "Biggest Worry" -  Interest Rate Increases in Parallels to 1994


"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein warned that the interest- rate environment has parallels to 1994, when a sudden and sharp increase in rates caught many investors off-guard."


Question: What happens to Equities and Bond prices when there is a sudden hike in interest rates?

Methodology: We've examined the 10Y US Goverment Yields, S&P 500 Index and US Long Bond from 1981 to Present (32 years) and tried to find out what happens to Equity prices and Bond prices when interest rates make a sudden move up a.k.a "Interest rate spikes".

We've identified 5 interest rate spikes between the 32Yperiod.