Nuff Said

Outlook on Debt Ceiling and US Government Shutdown

**Analysis was made on 07-Oct-13.**

Our outlook remains constructive on equities until the end of the year despite Government Shutdown and and Debt Ceiling concerns that is due to be fixed before 17-Oct-13.

This is due to the following reasons.

1. Technicals. SPX is bullish technically and is forming a falling broadening wedge pattern in the 1Y daily chart w/c suggests a continuation of the upside move in the short-term. This bullish outlook will be invalidated if the price breaks the Support of the rising wedge w/c will then turn the technicals bearish. A potential driver of this event happening is when the policy makers in the US don't come up with a deal before 17-Oct-13 to raise it's debt ceiling. However we'd take the opposite bet on this because given that they "own" the decision whether they will default or not and given that the whole world is looking at them the probability that they will decide not to default is higher.

Sell in May and Go Away, Go back in Late September to October

Some thoughts on Index Seasonality (Dow Jones)

Key takeaways:

- The Dow is back where it was 6 Months ago (around April 10 to Present)

- In a 1 Year perspective, it seems Index Seasonality is in play

Dow Jones YTD Chart

 Dow Jones 15Y Seasonal Average

JGS buys MER shares from San Miguel Group at P237 per Share

Based on the disclosure from JGS below, we crunched the numbers to compute how much RSA and JG was pricing their deal and we came up with P236.6/share - That's about 20% discount from yesterday's closing price. If the numbers are correct, this is a pretty good deal for the Gokongweis if you ask me.

Top 50 Richest Filipinos According to Forbes (2013)

The numbers are out for the Top 50 richest Filipinos for 2013!

Forbes magazine has just released its list of top 50 richest people in the Philippines.

Mall tycoon Henry Sy is still undisputed for the 6th straight year, with a $12 billion net worth - an increase of $2.9 billion from a year ago.

I'd like to point out that the numbers is in US Dollars! To put this in perspective $12 Billion is roughly PHP 516 Billion.. Damn! Let's stop and reflect for while. LOL!

So what do you think these guys have in common? =)


Here's the Forbes list of the richest people with their estimated net worth:

1) Henry Sy; US$12 billion

2) Lucio Tan; $7.5 billion

3) Andrew Tan; $4.6 billion

4) Enrique Razon Jr.; $4.5 billion

5) John Gokongwei Jr.; $3.4 billion

COL Mid-Year Market Briefing - The Tides of Opportunity

Got this invitation from COL. If you're a client and you're free on the said dates, make sure you don't miss this event. =)

Registration is strictly on a first-come, first-served basis and will automatically close once maximum capacity has been reached. Reserve your seat today. Please do not forget to print out your e-ticket as this will be presented at the registration table on the day of the event.

Click here to register now.

See you there!

Philippine Composite Index (PCOMP:IND) - Where Are We In Terms of Valuations?

PSEi seems to be struggling to breach 6800.

We think there is a good reason for that simply because we cannot hide the cold fact that at current prices, our market is in the higher end (expensive) of the "value" range as measured by Current and Forward PE, Price to Book, and Dividend Yield.

Picture paints a thousand words. See for yourself.

Price = White

Current PE = Red

Forward PE = Orange

Price To Book = Blue

Div Yield = Yellow